Is Dalton the next Tannehill?

Last year, fans across the NFL were shocked when Ryan Tannehill (with a lot of help from Derrick Henry) led the Tennessee Titans to the AFC championship in his first season with the team. Tannehill took over in Week 6, and was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in all of football in that span. Seriously. Tannehill finished the year with 22 TDs, 6 interceptions, a 70% completion percentage and many fans who knew him only for his average play with Miami through his first seven years were shocked. 

The talent was never lacking with Tannehill, he just needed the right situation to maximize his abilities – could that be the case with Andy Dalton? I think so.

Now, before I do my best to make a pro-Dalton argument, which is hard enough in and of itself, I must begin with A.J. Green. Green, who entered the league with Dalton in 2011 has been in the conversation for the best WR in the NFL for years, when healthy. Not mentioning Green helping Dalton would be like not mentioning Mike Evans when discussing Manziel in college. Not mentioning Green would be like not talking about Julio Jones when discussing Matt Ryan. Green has helped Dalton tremendously and his impact cannot be stressed enough.

Now, Dalton is coming off his worst season as a starter. He was benched in Week 10, and publicly alluded to that the idea that the Bengals were tanking before becoming the starter again in Week 13. The Bengals finished 2-14 and now hold the #1 pick, which will likely be used on QB Joe Burrow. 

But, does this mean Dalton’s days as a starter are over? Now that I’m not too sure about. 

Dalton has had a pretty solid career stats wise. Nothing to write home about, but enough to understand why he was a starter for so long. In fact, in 2015 he was an MVP candidate as the Bengals got off to an 8-0 start. During that span, Dalton scored 20 touchdowns (18 passing, 2 rushing) and threw only 4 interceptions. He was also averaging 279 yards per game, so calling him a game manager at that time would have been a disservice to his play. In Week 14, he broke his thumb and missed the final quarter of the season. 

Now, I can’t point to a season 5 years ago and say “that’s why he should be a starter,” but the following 4 years after – he wasn’t terrible. And there was another huge factor that hurt his play: his weapons

In his breakout 2015 season, Dalton had A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert for nearly the whole year, and he also had Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu. The Bengals then lost both Sanu and Jones in the offseason. Then, from 2016 to 2018, tight end Tyler Eifert missed a total of 34 games. A.J Green missed a total of 14 games, and that’s not including the entire missed season for Green in 2019. The Bengals then drafted WR John Ross in 2017, who only played 3 games his rookie season and struggled with fumbles when he was on the field. 

Now, every team has to deal with injuries, but when Green, Eifert, and Ross were out, Dalton’s remaining weapons were then: Tyler Boyd, Giovanni Bernard, Tyler Kroft, and Brandon Lafell. Expecting any QB, aside from a few elite, to thrive with that arsenal is merely impossible. 

So, where does Dalton get his bad rep if he puts up solid numbers during the regular season, doesn’t typically have a great cast around him, and has still put the Bengals in position to reach the playoffs 5 times since 2011? 

It’s likely his playoff / primetime performances. Dalton is absolutely abysmal on the biggest stage. Dalton is 0-4 in the playoffs, with a career total of 1 TD to 6 interceptions. He has a winning career record in the regular season, but is 6-15 in late afternoon games. I won’t spin this in any way as anything other than a red flag for Dalton.  These highly viewed performances that he crumbles under play a huge role in why he is viewed as a much worse QB than he is on most Sundays. 

Now, there aren’t too many teams that are currently looking for a 32-year-old QB to take the reins, but there are a few. He could land a starting job immediately with a team like the Chargers or Patriots, or could be useful as a backup on a competing team like the 49ers or Vikings. 

I’m not trying to paint Dalton as some future MVP who was a victim of unlucky circumstances or an inept front office, but instead show that he isn’t terrible, and could still hold some value with the right squad. 

Placing Dalton in a Chargers system that features Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler will by far be his best surrounding cast. Having him paired with Bill Belichick will obviously be his best coaching situation. Both of these teams will want to find their QB of the future soon, but are both still loaded with talent right now, and are very capable of making a Super Bowl run in 2020 with the right QB. 

That last sentence should sound familiar because that is exactly what the Tennessee Titans did with Tannehill – and could very well be what one of these teams do with Andy Dalton. Dalton may be the epitome of average, but many teams are one injury away from wishing they had an average player to plug in their lineup.